in 1996 when bill clinton was running for reelection, at this point in the campaign he was not at 44%. he was at 504%. that is that 10 percent difference president obama has so destroyed the confidence of his own party in an independence that he is lagging ten points behind where bill clinton was. he is in terrible political say and for reasons i will review here shortly he is going to get worse before it gets better. i personally believe that 44 percent is a ceiling, not a floor. that is, inflated. my friend, great assistant to richard nixon, ronald reagan speech writer and adviser has long argued that there is no such thing as a bradley effect. the bradley effect is named for mayor tom bradley of los angeles when he ran against george deukmejian did not do as well in the final balloting is he had been doing in the polling. for years pundits have ascribe that to the brad the affected people are free to say they're not going to vote for african-american because they don't want to be up to the prejudice he they're talking anonymously to pollsters. and he has all the data, and i believe